Stocks Close Week, Month, and Quarter with Strong Gains; Bonds Lagged

The Dow (+2.0%), NASDAQ (+2.2%), and S&P 500 (+2.3%) finished the week, month, quarter, and half on a strong note.  Meanwhile, taxable bons were down about 0.3% and tax-free municipal bonds were down marginally.  The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.08% to close the week at 3.82%.

Contrary to the expectation of many (most?) economists, the US economy continues to be strong, despite some signals of weakening.  This is mainly due to the resilience of the job market and the consumer who continue to spend.  While the year over year rise is slowing, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE – the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) released last week remains high and well above the Fed’s target.  Combined with a strong labor market, resilience in the economy, this gives the Fed fuel to continue raising interest rates later this month.

Investors should be pleased when they receive their June account statements.  June was a pretty strong month for stocks, as they rose nearly 6%, and those gains were more broadly based than the previous months in 2023.  Bonds lagged in June, so the more conservative investors will have experienced lesser gains, but gains nonetheless.  The markets close early on Monday and are closed on Tuesday for the holiday, so trading is expected to be light for the week.  The only “important” data release will be the June jobs report on Friday, so this is a lackluster week.

^{Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.}

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.