Investing During Inflation

TRICKS OF THE TRADE

 Investing During an Inflation

Prepared by Nick Azzarita, Registered Representative, and Michael Menninger, CFP®, Financial Planner

What's the Reason for Inflation?

Inflation can be caused by several factors such as increased demand for goods and services, supply chain disruptions, rising production costs, expansionary monetary policies (like printing more money), excessive government spending, and external shocks like natural disasters or geopolitical tensions. These factors can lead to an imbalance between the supply of money and the available goods and services, resulting in a general increase in prices across the economy.

Inflation & Interest Rates: Impact on Stocks and Bonds

Are you afraid to look at your investment statements? The S&P 500 was recently down almost 20%, while the US aggregate bond market index was down by about 8%, its worst quarter for bonds in 42 years. This is rather unusual, as stocks and bonds tend to behave the opposite of each other. However, there are times when an event causes downward pressure to both, which has been the case this year. While there are other factors impacting the markets, the main culprit has been inflation. 

In March and April, inflation exceeded 8%, reaching a 40-year high. As a direct result, the Federal Reserve has begun the process of raising interest rates in an attempt to bring inflation down to its targeted rate of 2-3%. This economic environment of inflation and rising interest rates has adverse effects on both the stock and bond markets. As the Fed raises interest rates, the value of bonds falls. Inflation and rising interest rates put pressure on corporate earnings, so stock prices fall, too. For the typical 60/40 (60% stocks and 40% bonds) portfolio, there have been few places to hide, as the 60/40 portfolio has delivered one of its worst starts since World War II.

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Six Investment Asset Classes

There are six investment asset classes that tend to be more resilient during an inflationary / rising interest rate environment. These are: 

1. Short-Term Bonds: The longer the term of a bond, the more sensitive it is to interest rate changes. Thus, bond investors should reduce their exposure to long-term bonds. 
2. High-Yield Bonds: These bonds are typically less sensitive to rising interest rates. However, high-yield bonds have lower credit quality, carry greater investment risk, and often behave similarly to stock investments. 
3. Floating Rate Bonds: These bonds have interest rates that fluctuate along with the interest rate environment (much like a Home Equity Line of Credit). Thus, these bond values are not as interest-rate sensitive. However, like high-yield bonds, floating-rate bonds typically invest in lower-quality credit and carry greater investment risk. 
4. Short-Selling Treasury Bonds: Short-selling Treasury bonds means investors sell Treasury bonds they don’t even own because they believe that bond prices will fall. This is considered speculative, extremely risky, and is typically used only by very experienced institutional investors. 
5. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): TIPS are government bonds that can help protect investors from inflation, as the value of TIPS will increase with inflation. 
6. Commodities: Commodities are goods used in commerce such as gold, oil, copper, lumber, etc., and these typically have a positive correlation with inflation. Thus, as inflation goes up, commodity prices typically rise in value. However, this asset class is typically very volatile and considered to be a risky investment.

How Do You Manage Your Portfolio When There's Inflation?

It can be challenging, but not impossible, to manage a portfolio during inflation. You must understand the various investing options that are accessible to you and how they can shield your funds from the effects of inflation. Additionally, you should keep a careful eye on interest rates and be ready to reallocate funds as needed. During periods of inflation, these suggestions can assist in guaranteeing that your portfolio stays steady

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Navigating Investing During Inflation with Menninger & Associates

Menninger & Associates offers guidance to navigate investing in inflationary climates. With tailored strategies, including diversification, inflation-protected securities, and real assets, we safeguard your portfolios. Our proactive approach ensures clients thrive amidst inflation's complexities.

 If you have any questions regarding investing during inflation and how our investment team actively manages portfolios, please reach out to Menninger & Associates at 610-422-3773.

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